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Mirae Corporation is a sub-scale Korean test-handler vendor whose FY2025 P&L (revenue ₩50.8B, net income ₩10.1B) was driven by one Chinese customer — YILINING PRECISION / Yiling Trading at 56.5% of revenue — at a 49% ASP concession. The verdict is Watchlist: the order book is real but cash conversion (FY2025 OCF -₩5.2B, FCF -₩22.1B), an unresolved ₩30.8B PP&E reclassification, and parabolic tape (RSI 77, +110% over the 200-day SMA) block ownership at ₩27,600. Every variable that decides whether this is a 5-to-10-year compounder or a one-cycle rental sits in a disclosure that has not yet arrived. The five monitors below cover those disclosures: the Q2 FY2026 mid-August cash print, US/Korean back-end export-control posture, the CXMT IPO supplier slate, capital-structure discipline around the 2026-07-27 forward split, and the HBM/Changchuan competitive flank that decides the multi-year case.
Active Monitors
| Rank | Watch item | Cadence | Why it matters | What would be detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DART quarterly cash conversion + YILINING customer concentration | Daily | Bull and bear cases pivot on the Q2 FY2026 OCF print. The cumulative five-year scorecard is net income ₩0.7B against FCF -₩49.8B, plugged with ₩43.6B of financing — one printed quarter of positive OCF on ≥₩18B revenue is the only thing that moves this off Watchlist. | New quarterly business reports (분기보고서); single-supply contracts (단일판매공급계약), counterparty name, ticket size, and any (정정) amendment for delayed payment; first appearance of a non-Yiling customer (SK Hynix, Samsung, ASE, Amkor, JCET) above 10% of revenue. |
| 2 | US BIS / Korean MOTIE export-control actions on back-end test equipment | Twice daily | This is the binary tail risk. CXMT and YMTC are already on the US Entity List; back-end test handlers are currently exempt. A single Federal Register notice covering Korean back-end shipments to Chinese memory customers — or the addition of Yiling Trading to a US designation list — would reverse 56.5% of FY2025 revenue inside one quarter. | Federal Register notices on Entity List, Unverified List, or foreign-direct-product coverage of back-end test; OFAC/SDN/50%-rule additions of Yiling Trading or YILINING PRECISION; Korean MOTIE alignment statements or new strategic-items license requirements; Chinese reciprocal countermeasures on Korean back-end imports. |
| 3 | CXMT IPO docketing and Korean supplier-slate confirmation | Daily | Korean trade press has named Mirae alongside Jusung and Nextin as a CXMT-tier supplier, but no primary CXMT filing has confirmed it. A prospectus that explicitly names Mirae or Yiling Trading converts the FY2025 P&L from a single-cycle artifact into a multi-year revenue franchise; a delay or alternative slate disconfirms the bull case. | CXMT prospectus filings at HKEx or Shanghai STAR Market; CSRC review status; the equipment-supplier list and named purchase volumes; wafer-capacity targets vs the ~200k wafers/month indication; IPO size revisions from US$4.13B; any Changchuan substitution into the supplier slate. |
| 4 | Capital-structure discipline + governance signals around the forward split | Daily | History is share count +169% before a 16:1 reverse split, ₩43.6B of cumulative financing plugging the cash burn, and the controlling chain booking ₩23.6B FY25 combined net loss. A new CB / rights / secondary inside ±90 days of the 2026-07-27 5-for-1 forward split repeats the FY2024 dilution pattern. Any auditor change or footnote on the unresolved ₩30.8B PP&E reclassification is thesis-grade. | DART 주요사항보고서 for CB, rights, or secondary placements; related-party loans, advances, asset transfers, or guarantees from Mirae to Nexturn Roll Korea, Studio Santa Claus Entertainment, or ROA & Co; auditor change away from Moon Hyung-suk / Hyundai Accounting; (정정) restatement of FY2024 or FY2025 financials; outside-director changes or audit-committee formation; insider share sales by the controlling chain. |
| 5 | HBM product extension + Changchuan substitution at Chinese memory customers | Weekly | The two slow-moving variables that decide the multi-year case. Mirae has no HBM-specific handler while Hanmi, Techwing, and Advantest already participate; Changchuan has grown from sub-5% to ~12% global handler share and qualifies new package types yearly — each qualification removes one Mirae-addressable order at YILINING / CXMT / YMTC. | Mirae announcement of a named HBM handler model; disclosed SK Hynix or Samsung HBM-line contract; R&D meaningfully above the historical ₩3B/year line; Changchuan or other Chinese domestic vendors (Hwatsing, Shanghai Precision) winning qualifications, single-supply orders, or named contracts at YILINING, Yiling Trading, CXMT, or YMTC. |
Why These Five
The report's central tension is that every variable in the long-term underwriting map — cash conversion, customer diversification, capital-allocation discipline, regulatory durability, HBM optionality — resolves through a disclosure that has not yet arrived. Monitors 1 and 4 cover the disclosures Mirae itself controls (DART filings, capital actions, governance). Monitor 2 covers the single binary risk that no operating improvement can offset. Monitor 3 covers the one external confirmation — the CXMT IPO supplier slate — that would convert the FY2025 ramp into a multi-year revenue base. Monitor 5 covers the two slow-moving competitive flanks (HBM extension and Changchuan substitution) that decide whether Mirae is a 1.5-2× book outcome or a 0.4× book outcome on a five-year view. Together they target every "what would change the view" item flagged in the verdict, catalysts, and long-term-thesis sections; nothing on this watchlist is generic news collection.