FY2025 printed the strongest reported earnings in five years and the worst operating cash flow.

• Net income ₩10.1B; operating cash flow −₩5.2B; free cash flow −₩22.1B. The year that lit up the income statement burned cash on receivables and inventory as the China shipment book closed late on 30/60/10 deposit terms.
• The five-year scorecard says it is structural, not seasonal. FY2021–FY2025 cumulative net income sums to ₩0.7B against cumulative free cash flow of −₩49.8B; the gap was plugged with ₩43.6B of convertible bonds, rights offerings, and bank borrowings, with the credit line 99.2% drawn.
• Q2 FY2026 (~14 August) is the single observable that resolves it. A positive OCF print on ≥₩18B quarterly revenue with no fresh equity filing would refute the structural read; another NI-positive, OCF-negative quarter would confirm the bear case at 1.0× book.

YILINING PRECISION supplied 56.5% of FY2025 revenue — and Mirae cut ATE pricing nearly in half to land the volume.

ATE volume jumped 4× to 90 handlers while per-unit segment revenue collapsed from ₩978M to ₩502M — the signature of a price-taker buying volume with a concession, not a moat-protected vendor. Both downstream chipmakers in the YILINING chain (CXMT, YMTC) sit on the US Entity List; a single Federal Register notice extending controls to back-end test would reverse revenue toward the FY2023 ₩22B trough.

₩30.8B of fixed assets came off the balance sheet in FY2025 without a matching cash receipt or disclosed disposal.

• The PP&E roundtrip. FY2024 capex was ₩36.3B against ₩1.0B of depreciation — 36.6× depreciation. Fixed assets swelled from ₩16.8B to ₩47.8B, then dropped back to ₩17.0B in FY2025 while non-current assets grew only ₩3.3B. The footnote that would resolve sale-leaseback vs reclassification vs capitalized opex has not been published.
• Restatement already on the record. Board resolution 2025-02-05 approved a formal restatement of FY2023 consolidated financials, with multiple (정정) amendments to single-customer supply contracts that followed.
• Thin oversight. Five-person board, one outside director at 74% attendance after the second resigned in August 2025, no audit committee, statutory auditor at a small Korean firm. The controlling chain (Nextern Roll Korea → Studio Santa Claus → ROA & Co) booked combined ₩23.6B in net losses last year.

+167% in twelve months, +94% over the past 30 days — RSI 78 and 30-day vol 120% put the rally at the edge of its useful range.

A fresh golden cross printed 2025-11-10 after a two-year death-cross window, and the November–December ₩14B and ₩10B supply contracts re-rated the stock back above the 200-day. The 5-for-1 forward split scheduled for 2026-07-27 is the optics moment the bear case watches for a follow-on capital action — the pattern that surrounded the 16:1 reverse split twelve months earlier.